Oh, that I can, and thank you for your message, really. With that said, here is the differences: cars did work as a transport, and AI as it is marketed (magic replacer of all) does not, and even in the narrow use case of programming - no, it does not. It can produce heaps of lines of code, it cannot do the work of building a reliable software that does what is required of it. It has also failed to replace artists. So no, I am not afraid
My monkey brain keeps hearing of non-linear progress, and things keep staying here:
Besides that, since you insist on being fearful: why AI of all things and not a handful of rich assholes who actually make our lives hard every damn day?
Yes, it’s not linear. The progress of GenAI in the past 2 years is logarithmic at best, if you compare it with the boom that was 2019-2023 (from GPT2 to GPT4 in text, DALL-E 1 to 3 in images). The big companies trained their networks on all of the internet and ran out of training data, if you compare GPT4 to GPT5 it’s pretty obvious. Unless there’s a significant algorithmic breakthrough (which is looking less and less likely), at least text-based AI is not going to have another order-of-magniture improvement for a long time. Sure, it can already replace like 10% of devs who are doing boring JS stuff, but replacing at least half of the dev workforce is a pipe dream of the C-suite for now.
Oh, that I can, and thank you for your message, really. With that said, here is the differences: cars did work as a transport, and AI as it is marketed (magic replacer of all) does not, and even in the narrow use case of programming - no, it does not. It can produce heaps of lines of code, it cannot do the work of building a reliable software that does what is required of it. It has also failed to replace artists. So no, I am not afraid
Compare AI generated content from now and 2 years ago and extrapolate the curve
It’s not linear, but your monkey brain will insist it is
That’s why you’re not afraid.
Honestly taking programmer jobs isn’t even close to the worst thing AI is going to do to us
My monkey brain keeps hearing of non-linear progress, and things keep staying here:
Besides that, since you insist on being fearful: why AI of all things and not a handful of rich assholes who actually make our lives hard every damn day?
Yes, it’s not linear. The progress of GenAI in the past 2 years is logarithmic at best, if you compare it with the boom that was 2019-2023 (from GPT2 to GPT4 in text, DALL-E 1 to 3 in images). The big companies trained their networks on all of the internet and ran out of training data, if you compare GPT4 to GPT5 it’s pretty obvious. Unless there’s a significant algorithmic breakthrough (which is looking less and less likely), at least text-based AI is not going to have another order-of-magniture improvement for a long time. Sure, it can already replace like 10% of devs who are doing boring JS stuff, but replacing at least half of the dev workforce is a pipe dream of the C-suite for now.